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Your Fleet’s Biggest Cost Is Set by a War You Can’t Control. Your EV Fleet Charging Infrastructure Can Change That.
- John Ford
- Apr 16
- 6 min read
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
On 4 March, diesel jumped 65 cents per litre. By 12 March, Brent crude closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022. Current forecasts for April point to a further R4.50 to R6+ per litre diesel increase, on top of 21 cents in new levies.
Coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carries 20% of the world's daily oil supply. Brent crude surged from $69 to over $100 a barrel in under 2 weeks, touching $120 at its peak. On 12 March, Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared the Strait must remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy."
If you run a diesel fleet in South Africa, this crisis has repriced your biggest operating cost twice in 10 days. You had no say in it either time.
One solution puts the choice back in your hands. Fleet operators across South Africa are already running routes on locally generated energy at a fixed cost per kilometre. The technology is proven, the data is clear, and there’s a structured path to get there.
Your diesel cost moves with the global oil price, the Rand exchange rate, and annual levy increases that compound every year. Every OPEC+ decision in Riyadh flows directly into your fleet margin.
Fleet operators in South Africa are moving to a commercial alternative. It starts with identifying which routes can run on stable, locally generated energy. Then you compare the numbers: diesel volatility against the cost certainty that renewable-backed EV fleet charging infrastructure delivers.
How the Strait of Hormuz reprices your diesel bill
A $10/barrel increase in Brent crude adds 30–40 cents per litre at SA pumps, depending on the Rand exchange rate. The basic fuel price is set in US dollars. Brent has risen over $30/barrel since the conflict began. That translates to R4.50 or more per litre at the pump, before you add the April levy increases.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has halted tanker traffic. At least 6 tankers have been hit in the Gulf in recent days. Iran’s new supreme leader has declared the closure will continue. The IEA describes this as the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market, with flows through the Strait dropping from 20 million barrels per day to a trickle.
This is the 3rd major oil supply disruption in 4 years, and by far the worst. Fleet operators either absorb the cost or pass it on to clients who are increasingly unwilling to accept fuel surcharges they can’t predict.
The domestic cost squeeze: levy increases and the 12BA expiry
Geopolitical shocks compound a domestic cost structure that already squeezes fleet margins.
From April 2026, diesel users face a combined 21 cents per litre increase in levies: General Fuel Levy +8c (to R3.93/L), RAF levy +7c (to R2.25/L), carbon fuel levy +6c. These apply regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz and compound international oil price swings. The General Fuel Levy and RAF levy have increased every year for over a decade.
The renewable energy tax deduction (Section 12BA, offering 125% of capex) expired in February 2025 with no renewal. Companies that installed solar PV or battery storage during the incentive window now generate power at below R1/kWh. For companies that didn’t, the capital cost of new renewable installations is 25% higher in effective terms. The business case holds, but the subsidy window has closed.
Grid electricity has its own cost pressures. Eskom tariffs rose 12.74% for the 2025/26 financial year. NERSA has confirmed a further 8.76% increase for direct customers from 1 April 2026, with 8.83% following in 2027/28. But electricity tariffs adjust once a year on a published schedule, not overnight. Drone strikes on Middle Eastern refineries don’t spike your electricity bill. No monthly adjustments tied to exchange rate movements. The planning horizon is 12 months, not 12 hours.
On-site renewables and EV fleet charging infrastructure: the decoupling opportunity
Grid electricity gives you annual predictability. On-site solar PV and battery storage combined with depot-based EV fleet charging infrastructure gives you decade-long cost certainty.
Companies that installed solar PV and battery storage at their depots generate energy at well below Eskom industrial rates. Those that did so during the Section 12BA window charge vehicles at near-zero marginal cost. The tax incentive expired, but the panels are still producing. For new installations, the capital cost is higher in effective terms, but the underlying economics remain strong: you fix your energy cost for the life of the system while diesel fluctuates monthly.
NERSA’s wheeling tariff now allows fleet depots to source renewable power from off-site generators through the grid, giving multi-site operators access to clean energy without installing panels at every location.
The comparison that matters for fleet planning:
Diesel: Price changes monthly, driven by global oil markets, USD exchange rate, and annual levy increases. Biggest monthly swing in 2024: R1.19/L. Budget confidence: quarter-to-quarter at best. Long-term cost lock-in: not possible.
Grid electricity: Price changes annually, published schedule, Rand-denominated. No geopolitical exposure. Budget confidence: 12 months forward.
On-site solar PV + battery storage + charging infrastructure: Energy cost fixed for the life of the system. No exchange rate risk. No geopolitical exposure. Budget confidence: 15+ years forward.
Your energy cost remains stable only if the charging infrastructure matches your fleet’s operations. That means sizing chargers to your turnaround windows and aligning your energy source, whether solar or grid, to peak demand. The energy matters. The infrastructure that delivers it to your vehicles matters just as much.
The regulatory pressure
Stable energy pricing alone doesn’t protect your position. Regulatory shifts are now mandating the energy transparency that renewable infrastructure provides.
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism moved to full enforcement on 1 January 2026. EU importers of steel, aluminium, cement, and fertiliser now purchase CBAM certificates reflecting embedded carbon. If your fleet serves EU-facing exporters, your transport’s carbon intensity becomes their compliance cost. Without verified emissions data, you lose tenders.
South Africa is aligning with ISSB disclosure standards (IFRS S1 and S2), with mandatory adoption expected within 2 to 3 years. Scope 1 emissions, your own fleet’s direct output, carry no first-year exemption. The data will be due from day one.
FMCG companies with owned distribution fleets face pressure from European retail partners and global parent companies demanding Scope 3 emissions data. Your fleet is a material line item. If you can’t quantify it, you’re a gap in someone else’s disclosure.
A fleet powered by traceable renewable energy and monitored charging infrastructure automatically produces verified, low-emission transport data. That data protects your tender pipeline and your margins.
Where this starts
Decoupling from diesel volatility doesn’t begin with buying a battery-electric truck. It begins with data: your route data, your energy costs, and your depot’s electrical capacity.
A structured fleet analysis answers the questions that determine whether the transition works for your specific operation:
Which routes have the right distance and dwell-time characteristics for battery-electric vehicles?
What does your depot’s electrical capacity look like?
What EV fleet charging infrastructure do you need?
How do costs compare across diesel, grid, and on-site renewable scenarios?
What are the battery-electric truck lead times for your vehicle class, and how does that affect your phasing?
Aeversa’s analysis models energy costs across diesel, grid, and on-site renewable scenarios for your specific routes and depot setup. It identifies which vehicles can transition now, which phase in over 12–18 months as supply allows, and which stay on diesel.
Fleet operators who run this comparison consistently find routes where battery-electric vehicles already cost less per kilometre than diesel, before factoring in maintenance savings or carbon compliance value.
With diesel forecast to rise R4.50 to R6+ per litre in April alone, the gap widens every month you wait. The cost case is there. The data confirms it. And the operators acting on it now are locking in energy costs their competitors can’t match.
Talk to us about your fleet
We’ll map your routes, model your energy costs across diesel, grid, and renewable scenarios, and show you where fleet electrification closes the cost case. No commitment. Just data.
www.aeversa.com Written By:
 | John Henry Ford Sales Manager AEVERSA |
Author Bio:
John is the Sales Manager at Aeversa, where he specialises in fleet electrification and sustainable energy solutions. With a strong background in the EVSE and automotive industries, John has led initiatives that integrate electric vehicle charging infrastructure with renewable energy sources, such as solar power and battery storage.
His work focuses on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs for logistics and distribution fleets. John is passionate about advancing clean transportation technologies and has been instrumental in projects that demonstrate the practical benefits of fleet electrification in South Africa.
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